A Bayesian Approach Proposal For Inventory Cost and Demand Forecasting

Apak, Sinan

doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.2.5000140055

A Bayesian Approach Proposal For Inventory Cost and Demand Forecasting

Sinan Apak, Ph.D.

Abstract

Technology’s perpetual vicissitude and product models’ distinction in industrial market have a crucial effect on forecasting demand for spare components. In order to set forth the future demand rates for products, inventory managers repetitively update their prognostications. Bayesian model is utilizing a prior probability distribution for the injunctive authorization rate which was habituated in order to get optimum levels of account over a number of periods. However, under sundry demand rates like intermittent demand, Bayesian Model’s performance has not been analyzed. With the help of a research question, the study investigates that circumstance.

Keywords: Bayesian Model, Forecasting, Inventory, Probability Distribution

Jel Classification: C11, C18, C53

Envanter Maliyeti ve Talep Tahmini için Bayes Yaklaşımı Önerisi

Öz

Endüstriyel pazardaki teknolojinin kalıcı değişikliğinin ve ürün modellerinin farklılığının, yedek parçalar için yapılan talep tahmini üzerinde önemli bir etkisi vardır. Ürünlerin gelecekteki talep oranlarını ortaya koymak amacıyla envanter yöneticileri kendi tahminlerini sürekli güncellemektedir. Bayes modeli, önsel olasılık dağılımı kullanarak kabul edilebilir oranı birkaç dönem üzerinden optimum hesap yapmak için kullanmaktadır. Ancak, aralıklı talep gibi muhtelif talep oranlarının altında, Bayes Modelinin performansı analiz edilmemiştir. Bir araştırma sorusu yardımıyla, bu çalışma bu durum inceler

Anahtar Kelimeler: Bayes Modeli, Envanter, Olasılık Dağılımı, Tahminleme

Suggested citation

Apak, S. (2015). A Bayesian Approach Proposal For Inventory Cost and Demand Forecasting. Alphanumeric Journal, 3(2), 41-48. http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.2.5000140055

bibtex

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