The Impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Commodity Prices: An Application of ARDL Bounds Test

Yılmaz Özsoy, Çiğdem

doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.720873

The Impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Commodity Prices: An Application of ARDL Bounds Test

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Çiğdem Yılmaz Özsoy, Ph.D.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Bitcoin/TL prices as a Commodity by using the ARDL Bounds Test. In the article, monthly data between 2017:09 – 2019:12 is used. The Central Bank Indicators are explained by M2 money supply, one-month interest rates of bank deposits, one-week repo interest rate, 10-year government bond. In the paper, Bitcoin's prices are considered as a Commodity in TL. The stationary behavior of variables is investigated by using the ADF test and it is found that all the variables are stationary in first differences for the trend and constant model. But the price of Bitcoin in TL is stationary in level for the constant model. Thus, to discover the long-run relationship between variables, the ARDL test is applied. As a result of the ARDL test, it is found that there is a long-run relationship between all the Central Bank indicators and Bitcoin/TL prices. According to obtained results, while the M2 money supply and Turkey’s 10-year government bonds (%) move together with Bitcoin prices; the one-week repo interest rate as a political rate, and one-month interest rates of the deposit move in opposite directions with Bitcoin prices in a long-run.

Keywords: ARDL, Central Bank, Cointegration, Commodity, Unit root

Jel Classification: C01, E4, E5

Suggested citation

Yılmaz Özsoy, Ç. (2021). The Impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Commodity Prices: An Application of ARDL Bounds Test. Alphanumeric Journal, 9(1), 13-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.720873

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2021.09.01.ECON.01

alphanumeric journal

Volume 9, Issue 1, 2021

Pages 13-24

Received: April 16, 2020

Accepted: Jan. 27, 2021

Published: June 30, 2021

Full Text [485.5 KB]

2021 Yılmaz Özsoy, Ç.

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence, which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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The Impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Commodity Prices: An Application of ARDL Bounds Test

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