@Article{AJ_2024.12.03.STAT.01,
    doi     = { 10.17093/alphanumeric.1507101 },
    author  = { Muhammet Mesut Ertilav and Muhammet Burak Kılıç },
    title   = { Forecasting the Population of Türkiye Using Grey Models },
    abstract = { Population forecasting plays a significant role in determining demography, eco0
nomics, and agriculture policies for developing countries. In this study, we employ
the five different grey prediction models to estimate the population of Türkiye
up to the year 2050. These models are given as the grey standard (GM (1,1)), grey
time0varying dynamic (GM (1,1)t), grey Gompertz (GGM), grey Verhulst (GVM), and
grey exponential (EXGM (1,1). The comparison of grey models is evaluated by mean
absolute percentage error (MAPE), regression coefficient (R2), variance ratio (C), and
probability of error (P). As a first application, we use a split for training (200702017)
and testing (201802022) periods using from 2007 to 2022 address0based data. The
EXGM (1,1) model demonstrates superiority in the analysis of training dataset. The
GGM and GM (1,1)t models provide the most suitable results in the analysis of testing
dataset. As a second application, we use the dataset for the period between 2007
and 2022. The GGM and GM (1,1)t were identified as the most appropriate models
for predicting the 200702022 period. For the future population forecasts from 2023
to 2050, the results of the five models are compared with the projection values
of the Turkish Statistical Institute published in 2018. The GGM is determined to
be the most compatible based on the MAPE value of 0.68116 and the C value of
0.05218, and the Grey Verhulst model is provided with the most compatible R² value
of 0.99818. According to the GGM, the population of Türkiye is projected to reach
105,948,975 up to the year 2050, 106,877,632 based on the GM (1,1) t, and 102,591,471
based on the GVM }
    journal = { Alphanumeric Journal },
    year    = { 2024 },
    volume  = { 12 },
    number  = { 3 },
    pages   = { 227-248 },
    url     = { https://alphanumericjournal.com/article/forecasting-the-population-of-turkiye-using-grey-models },
}