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Ulaştırma ve Lojistik Kongreleri

alphanumeric journal

The Journal of Operations Research, Statistics, Econometrics and Management Information Systems

The Research Effects of Law Changes at Air Transportation On Air Passanger Carries for Turkey


Hülya Şen, Ph.D.

Hakkı Polat


Abstract

Nowadays, the most cricital element of modern world is to establish connection. The most critical sector of country development and sustaining global economic growth is undouble aviation industry which is applied technological innovations in the fastest way and provides establishing these connections. In this article, firstly the air passangers numbers between1970 to 2013 try to analysis by the diagnostic time series analysis. After that, it has been researched that the law changes are really effect air transport sector. For testing this situation Chow’s Breakpoint test has been chosen. After analysis shown that law changes in 2001 really effect that Turkeys air passengers numbers than its cause to appear a break point in time series.

Keywords: Airline Transport, Box-Jenkins, Chow’s Break Point Test, Time Series Analysis

Jel Classification: C01, C20, C50, C51

Havayolu Taşımacılığı Kanunlarındaki Değişikliğin Türkiye'deki Havayolu Yolcu Taşımacılığı Üzerine Etkilerinin Araştırılması


Öz

Günümüzde modern dünyanın en kritik unsuru bağlantı kurmaktır. Ülkelerin gelişiminde ve küresel ekonomik büyümenin sürdürülmesinde en kritik öneme sahip sektörlerden biride, hiç kuşkusuz bu bağlantının kurulmasını sağlayan ve teknolojik yeniliklerin en hızlı hayata geçirildiği havacılık sektörüdür. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki 1970-2013 yılları arası havayolu ile taşınan yolcu sayılarına ait verilerin temel zaman serileri analizleri kullanılarak serinin gösterdiği davranışlar analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Özellikle 2000’li yıllardan sonra devlet teşvikleri ve kanun değişikleri ile hayata geçen uygulamaların sektör üzerinde nasıl bir etkisi olduğunun anlaşılması için yapısal kırılma testi olarak da bilinen Chow’un Yapısal Kırılma (Chow’s Break Point Test) testi uygulanmıştır. Analizler sonucunda özellikle 2001 yılındaki kanun değişikliğinden sonra serinin trendinin arttığı bu durumda seride yapısal bir kırılmaya sebep olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Box Jenkins Metodu, Chow Testi, Havayolu Taşımacılığı, Zaman Serileri Analizi


Cite this article

Şen, H., Polat, H. (2015). Havayolu Taşımacılığı Kanunlarındaki Değişikliğin Türkiye'deki Havayolu Yolcu Taşımacılığı Üzerine Etkilerinin Araştırılması. Alphanumeric Journal, 3(1), 89-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.1.5000109380

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Volume 3, Issue 1, 2015

2015.03.01.ECON.01

alphanumeric journal

Volume 3, Issue 1, 2015

Pages 89-98

Received: March 30, 2015

Accepted: June 29, 2015

Published: June 30, 2015

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2015 Şen, H., Polat, H.

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