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Ulaştırma ve Lojistik Kongreleri

alphanumeric journal

The Journal of Operations Research, Statistics, Econometrics and Management Information Systems

Determinants of Mobile Penetration to Forecast New Broadband Adoption: OECD Case

Lütfü Şağbanşua, Ph.D.

Osman Şahin, Ph.D.

Muhterem Çöl, Ph.D.


This paper aims to analyze relationship between Mobile penetration and various indicators of communication infrastructure throughout OECD countries. Panel data is utilized for the purpose of this study. In order to control network effects as well as the endogeneity of variables, the Arellano–Bond dynamic panel estimation is adopted. In particular, this paper attempts to identify what are the factors to promote the 3G mobile phone by using dynamic panel data analysis. In constructing an estimation model, Cellular mobile penetration is taken as a dependent variable, while various technical and economic variables are selected as independent variables. The obtained results can be used to forecast adoption of New Broadband Penetration technology.

Keywords: Communication, Forecast, Mobile Penetration, New Broadband Adoption, OECD, Panel Data Analysis

Jel Classification: C53

Yeni Geniş Bant Adaptasyonunu Tahminlemede Mobil Penetrasyonun Belirleyicileri: OECD Örneği


Bu makalede mobil penetrasyon ile iletişim altyapısının çeşitli göstergeleri arasındaki ilişki OECD ülkeleri genelinde analiz edilmektedir. Bu amaçla panel data yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Değişkenlerin içsellik sorunu ve ağ etkilerini kontrol edebilmek için Arellano-Bond dinamik panel tahmini uygulanmıştır. Özel olarak bu makale, ilerideki çalışmalarda 4G kullanımını tahminleyebilmek için dinamik panel data analizini kullanarak 3G kullanımı etkileyen faktörleri belirlemeye çalışmaktadır. Bu amaçla bir tahmin modeli oluştururken cep telefonu penetrasyonu bağımlı değişken olarak, çeşitli teknik ve ekonomik değişkenler de bağımsız değişkenler olarak alınmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar yeni geniş bant penetrasyon teknolojisinin adaptasyonunu tahmin etmek için kullanılabilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Mobil Penetrasyon, OECD, Panel Veri Analizi, Tahmin, Yeni Geniş Bant Adaptasyonu, İletişim

Cite this article

Şağbanşua, L., Şahin, O., Çöl, M. (2015). Determinants of Mobile Penetration to Forecast New Broadband Adoption: OECD Case. Alphanumeric Journal, 3(2), 35-40. http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.2.5000140094


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Volume 3, Issue 2, 2015


alphanumeric journal

Volume 3, Issue 2, 2015

Pages 35-40

Received: Sept. 4, 2015

Accepted: Dec. 23, 2015

Published: Dec. 31, 2015

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2015 Şağbanşua, L., Şahin, O., Çöl, M.

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