**Abstract**

Technology’s perpetual vicissitude and product models’ distinction in industrial market have a crucial effect on forecasting demand for spare components. In order to set forth the future demand rates for products, inventory managers repetitively update their prognostications. Bayesian model is utilizing a prior probability distribution for the injunctive authorization rate which was habituated in order to get optimum levels of account over a number of periods. However, under sundry demand rates like intermittent demand, Bayesian Model’s performance has not been analyzed. With the help of a research question, the study investigates that circumstance.

**Keywords:** Bayesian Model, Forecasting, Inventory, Probability Distribution

**Jel Classification:** C11, C18, C53

**Öz**

Endüstriyel pazardaki teknolojinin kalıcı değişikliğinin ve ürün modellerinin farklılığının, yedek parçalar için yapılan talep tahmini üzerinde önemli bir etkisi vardır. Ürünlerin gelecekteki talep oranlarını ortaya koymak amacıyla envanter yöneticileri kendi tahminlerini sürekli güncellemektedir. Bayes modeli, önsel olasılık dağılımı kullanarak kabul edilebilir oranı birkaç dönem üzerinden optimum hesap yapmak için kullanmaktadır. Ancak, aralıklı talep gibi muhtelif talep oranlarının altında, Bayes Modelinin performansı analiz edilmemiştir. Bir araştırma sorusu yardımıyla, bu çalışma bu durum inceler

**Anahtar Kelimeler:** Bayes Modeli, Envanter, Olasılık Dağılımı, Tahminleme

**Cite this article**

Apak, S. (2015). A Bayesian Approach Proposal For Inventory Cost and Demand Forecasting. Alphanumeric Journal, 3(2), 41-48. http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.2.5000140055

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2015.03.02.STAT.02

alphanumeric journal

Pages 41-48

Received: Sept. 16, 2015

Accepted: Dec. 24, 2015

Published: Dec. 31, 2015

2015 Apak, S.

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence, which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

School of Transportation and Logistics, Istanbul University

Avcilar Campus 34320 Avcilar/Istanbul/TURKEY

Bahadır Fatih Yıldırım, Ph.D.

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